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Germany Doubles Q1 Growth Estimate on Export, Factory Rebound

Orlando Newkirk by Orlando Newkirk
May 23, 2025
in Economics
German flag waving in the foreground with the Berlin TV Tower visible in the background.

The first quarter of 2025 brought a 0.4% economic growth in Germany which exceeded the initial projection of 0.2% through increased exports together with manufacturing sector recovery from two years of economic decline.

The Federal Statistical Office announced the upward revision of its 0.2% growth estimate on Friday because of unexpected economic power in March. The economy achieved its best quarterly growth since Q3 2022 by increasing 0.6% in GDP.

The statistics office head Ruth Brandt explained that both exports and industrial output experienced significant growth during this period because global demand remained weak and supply chains experienced disruptions throughout 2024.

Germany experiences economic growth in its GDP figures which represents a rare positive development for its economy after enduring pandemic-induced difficulties. The economic indicators for Germany revealed negative GDP growth during both 2023 and 2024 because of fluctuating energy prices combined with decreased consumer spending and negative effects from global trade conflicts.

The independent economic advisers of Germany predicted no growth for this year while anticipating 1% GDP expansion for 2026. The advisory council identified ongoing risks from U.S. tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump as the main challenge. The steel and automotive tariffs alongside EU-wide product levies imposed by President Donald Trump have created significant challenges for German manufacturers who now face difficulties in maintaining their export market position.

The advisory panel displayed cautious optimism because of the major infrastructure investment package presented by Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s coalition government. Economists believe the infrastructure package which includes digital upgrades and energy transition projects and public transport enhancements will enhance productivity in the long term.

Trade relationships between Germany and the EU together with EU-wide economic expansion will determine the country’s future recovery trajectory. The combination of stable energy prices along with fiscal support allows policymakers to sustain positive economic growth while consumer confidence remains low but business sentiment remains stable.

The Q1 economic success brings relief to Merz’s new administration which began its term this month under expectation to achieve immediate accomplishments. The current growth trend remains uncertain but Germany surpasses projections with its current performance.

Tags: ExportGermany
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