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Climate Change and Tariffs Drive Up Coffee Prices, Straining Roasters

Christopher Yarborough by Christopher Yarborough
May 5, 2025
in Business
Close-up of a white cup filled with dark coffee and steam rising from the surface.

Reneé Colón operates Fuego Coffee Roasters from a rented warehouse where she roasts Brazilian coffee beans while monitoring their increasing price because of climate change and upcoming tariffs. The 2024 global coffee production experienced a significant decline because of Brazilian droughts which reduced output by half and increased raw bean prices by 100% throughout the year. The International Coffee Organization reports that green exports decreased by 14.2% year-over-year while the February price peak reached $5.50 per pound and surpassed the 1977 record.

The coffee-producing countries Brazil and Ethiopia face 10% tariffs from President Donald Trump while Vietnam and Indonesia face threatened 46% and 32% tariffs which were later paused. The current market situation forces roasters including Colón to decide between absorbing expenses or increasing prices which puts their customer base at risk because consumer confidence stands at its lowest point in 12 years. The production of specialty coffees in sensitive equatorial regions results in higher prices because farmers cannot use Puerto Rico as a substitute due to expensive labor costs and frequent hurricanes. According to Colón the coffee produced in Hawaii and California does not meet quality standards and remains unaffordable.

Ritual Coffee Roasters’ owner Daria Whalen describes how inflation affects labor costs and fertilizer expenses and borrowing costs which worsen climate-related challenges. The pre-tariff stockpiling activities of importers created price inflation which Colón predicts will increase after duties become active. The situation affects farmers together with roasters and consumers according to her assessment of supply chain potential losses. The couple obtained a $50,000 loan to purchase a Turkish roaster which enabled them to increase their production capacity by three times. The company will expand its wholesale operations to coffee shops while introducing a subscription model because they believe their business will endure through economic and environmental difficulties.

Tags: coffee
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